Just a Headline

Venezuela Spending on Arms Soars to World’s Top Ranks

This is somewhat of a continuation off of last weeks blog about Chavez buying all the new military equipment.  This article in the New York Times, follows up on the last providing more commentary from several of the Venezuelan officials and their justification for stocking up on the arms. 

Venezuela’s arms spending has climbed to more than $4 billion in the past two years, transforming the nation into Latin America’s largest weapons buyer and placing it ahead of other major purchasers in international arms markets like Pakistan and Iran.

Looking throughout the article, I cant help but notice that Venezuela has bought around 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles from Russia and intends to open a Kalashnikov factory to produce more of the weapon.  What seems interesting to me, is the fact that Venezuela only has a standing army of roughly 34,000.  Now I realize that it is important to have a stockpile of weapons, but as I have mentioned in earlier blogs, what are the chances that some of these weapons may end up in the hands of people outside of the military.

Another tidbit that jumped out at me  is that Venezuela is also considering building a remotely piloted patrol aircraft with Iran.  Part of their reasoning and justification for constructing these planes is to ‘combat environmental destruction in Venezuela.’  That sounds relatively harmless…doesn’t it?

OK, Chavez Buys Subs for Venezuela

Chavez has decided to purchase nine submarines to keep in Latin America to counter the United States presence there.  Chavez claims that he is just preparing for any type of ”asymmetric war” with the U.S. if it should ever occur.  So far, Venezuelan officials claim that they are abiding by all international and regional nonproliferation treaties. Buying weapons is nothing new to the Venezuelan leader, however this purchase will double what is currently being spent on military by the country. 

Caracas is reported to have spent $3.4 billion on Russian arms, including assault rifles and fighter jets, and to be negotiating to buy a $290 million Russian air-defense system. 
    
Now, according to remarks attributed to Vice Adm. Armando Laguna,
Venezuela is planning to spend another $3 billion for nine submarines, giving it the region’s largest submarine fleet by 2012. Mr. Alvarez could not confirm the report. 

Thus far, the United States has yet to declare any intention of ever attacking Venezuela.  In fact, it would make sense that the U.S. ceases trading with Venezuela prior to any such military attack.  Since Venezuela’s primary trade partner is America, some sort of economic sanctions—in the event that the U.S. wants inflict harm—would probably do enough damage to the South American nation’s economy. 

Historically, last time there was any sort of build up against the
United States military in the Caribbean was during the Cold War by Soviet backed Cuba.  However, the present situation is rather different considering Cuba was backed by the American nemesis, USSR, who at the time wielded much more power internationally than they do now.  Hugo Chavez’s government doesn’t have nearly the military power backing that Cuba had. 

Consequently, many will ask whether or not the submarines in the Caribbean present a threat to the U.S. and/or any allies in the region.  Some say that there is an unlikely chance that a nautical war will erupt from this; nevertheless, the massive loads of small arms that are being bought by Venezuela very well may end up in the hands of rebels and non-military individuals throughout the region—remember Columbia is just next door and claims one of the highest crime rates in the world.    

Another question that arises from this is whether or not Chavez’s actions will jeopardize trade with the U.S. The answer is we will probably see because it depends on several factors.  For one, how much of a threat the U.S. sees the build up as is a determinate of what could occur.  If our government feels endangered we will first probably ask Chavez to stop and then depending on his response subsequently take actions.  All the same, it is difficult to determine what will arise (if anything even comes of this).

Hugo Chavez has denied  that he restricts the freedom of the press; yet, he continues to blame the media — currently privately owned, but for how long? — for conspiring and attempting to overthrow his leftist government.   In the most recent news, the government of Venezuela has fined the newspaper Tal Cualfor an editorial written by humorist Laureano Márquez in which the President has a fictitious talk with his daughter.  From what I gather, Márquez ridiculed Chavez’s decision (using his daughter) to change the Venezuelan coat of arms (old) so that in the new coat of arms the horse is no longer running to the right, but is switched around so that it is heading to the left to mirror the political views of Chavez.  Furthermore, in the article Márquez writes:

“…she ask her father to trade the horse on the new coat of arms for a devoted house pet, such as a Golden Retriever or tortoise — ‘a good symbol of our sluggishness in everything.’”

With the current decision by the government to allow Chavez to rule by decree, and his moves to nationalize some of the resources in the country, it is baffling to think what his next move might.  By fining Tal Cual, it appears he is attacking this left-of-center paper, which is running out of funds already, and moving towards eradicating the free press in his Bolivarian Revolution.  In the ongoing debate as to whether Chavez is defending democracy or moving towards an authoritarian government, the decisions he has made of late (and that of the government) seem to point to a more authoritarian government. 

Here is the article in Spanish:

¿Cómo estás? Espero que bien y con la posibilidad de disfrutar de televisión con cable para poder ver algunas comiquitas. Te sugiero las de Boomerang, que si no nos hicieron daño a nosotros (¡creo yo!), tampoco les harán a ustedes. El oso Yogui, la pantera rosa, la hormiga atómica, Simbad, Shazzan, etc. No te recomiendo Los Picapiedras, porque a lo mejor a tu papá no le gustan, porque presentan el modelo capitalista como algo natural y propio del hombre que existía incluso desde las cavernas.

Supe de tus preocupaciones por el caballo del Escudo Nacional mirando hacia atrás. Coincido plenamente contigo. Todos los escudos tienen leones rampantes (Cuando se paran en las dos paticas de atrás), águilas, caballos, pero ninguno tiene un Golden Retriever, por ejemplo. Con lo nobles que son esos animales. Yo le pondría al escudo un Golden con un palito en la boca a los pies del amo. O una morrocoya, como la que tú tienes; un buen emblema de nuestra lentitud para todo. En todo caso, si le vamos a dejar un caballo, que sea uno de la Rinconada, con su numerito, jinete y todo. Porque si algo nos identifica, es el azar y las apuestas.
De todas maneras, el propósito de esta carta es pedirte ayuda. Ustedes los niños tienen mucho poder y yo sé que tu papá te hace caso. Probablemente, eres la única persona a la que escucha con atención. Además, tú y tus sobrinitos son los únicos capaces de hablar francamente con papá, sin el miedo que nos da a nosotros. El otro día, tu papi nos contó que su nieto le había dicho: “¡pirata tú!” ¡Qué envidia!. Bueno, pero para no desviarme del tema, como yo sé que él te presta atención, hazle estas peticiones:

- Pídele que saque también del escudo a un señor de uniforme verde oliva y barba blanca como San Nicolás (con el debido respeto al nuevo manual de la navidad). Un señor que se mete mucho en nuestros asuntos. Es como si la niñita de al lado de tu casa, aprovechándose de que tú la quieres mucho, se llevara tus Barbies, tus peluches o tus libros de cuentos y trajese a sus hermanitos a jugar a tu cuarto.

- Dile también que no hable de cosas que va a hacer más allá del 2021. En estos días, nos contó de un pocotón de bicentenarios que va a celebrar: del 1810, 12, 14 y siempre habla del 2021. Aunque vaya a quedarse hasta esa fecha, no debería decirlo tanto, porque a los que no estamos de acuerdo con él (no te asustes, cada vez somos menos según las estadísticas oficiales ) nos entra como una desesperanza que tampoco es buena.

- Una última cosa para que le pidas: que no se ponga tan bravo con los que no pensamos como él y que no nos regañe tanto. A veces nos llama golpistas y fascistas y le provoca a uno responderle como tu sobrinito: “!pirata tú!”.

Rosinés: Con estas cosas que te pido la larga convivencia que nos espera con tu papi será más llevadera. A cambio, nosotros le ofrecemos nuestro conformismo. Por cierto, pídele también que no haga tantas cadenas. Eso sí, todo esto como cosa tuya.

And here is a rough translation:

Dear Rosinés

How are you? I hope well and that you have the chance to enjoy some cartoons on cable TV. Let me recommend the show called Boomerang, which if it didn’t harm us (I think!), it won’t harm you either. As well as Yogi Bear, The Pink Panther, Atom Ant, Simbad, Shazam!, etc. I don’t recommend The Flinstones, because maybe your dad doesn’t like them, since they represent the capitalist model as something natural and belonging to humans, and which even existed during cavemen times.

I heard about your concerns regarding the horse on the Coat of Arms looking backwards. I completely agree with you. All coats of arms have roaring lions (when they stand up on their little hind legs), eagles, horses, but none have a Golden Retriever, for example. And those dogs are so noble. If it were up to me, I would put a Golden Retriever on the Coat of Arms, with a little stick in its mouth standing at its owner’s feet. Or a turtle, like the one you have: a good emblem for our slowness in everything. In any case, if we’re gonna leave a horse on ours, let it be one from the Rinconada racetrack, with its little number, its jockey and everything. Because if anything identifies us, it’s chance and betting. Anyways, the purpose of this letter is to ask for your help. You children have a lot of power and I know that your dad pays attention to you. You’re probably the only person he listens to closely. Besides, you and your little nephews are the only ones who can talk to your dad honestly, without the fear the rest of us feel. The other day, your papi told us that his grandson said to him: “No, you’re a pirate!” I’m so jealous! Well, so as not to go off-the topic here, since I know he listens to you, make these petitions to him:

– Ask him to also take out of the Coat of Arms a man dressed in olive green fatigues and with a white beard like St. Nick (with all appropriate respect towards the new manual for Christmas). A man who interferes too much in our affairs. It’s as though the little girl who lives next door to you, taking advantage of how much you like her, were to take your Barbies, your teddy bears or your story books and bring over her little brothers and sisters to play in your room.

– Tell him to also stop talking about the things he’s gonna do up through 2021. Recently, he told us about a whole bunch of bicentenaries he plans on celebrating: 1810, 12, 14 and he always talks about 2021. Even if he does plan on staying in power until that date, he shouldn’t say it so often, because those of us who don’t agree with him (don’t be scared, each day there’s fewer of us, according to official statistics) end up suffering a desperation that isn’t good either.

– One last thing for you to ask him: that he stop getting so mad at those of us who don’t think like him and that he stop scolding us so often. Sometimes he calls us coup plotters and fascists and one feels like answering back like your little nephew did: “No, you’re a pirate!”

Rosinés: With these things I’ve just asked you to mention, the long coexistence that awaits us with your papi will be easier to bear. In exchange, we’ll offer him our conformity. By the way, ask him also to not make so many required TV and radio broadcasts [cadenas]. But of course, pretend like these are all your ideas.

Although some content in the translation may have been lost and confusing, from what I read it was fairly funny, and just seemed to be rather harmless.  More importantly though, it made me think about what is written and said here in the United States in articles, comic strips, newspapers, by comedians, and overall opposition about our President Bush.  For instance, just check out the strip Doonesbury (which is mild in comparison to the late night comedians).  It really puts into perspective how free our press is in comparison to much of the world, and in this case Venezuela. 

The actual articles written by Marquez were obtained through these two sites.

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laureano_M%C3%A1rquez

and

http://venepoetics.blogspot.com/2007/02/querida-rosins-laureano-mrquez.html

Venezuela in Nicaragua

Just recently, President Hugo Chavez has announced that Venezuela will help establish oil production in struggling Nicaragua (one of the poorest nations in Central America).  Chavez claimed that producing 150,000 barrels of oil a day will help Nicaragua to begin fighting its current energy crisis.  Ironically, Nicaragua has claimed that it will maintain membership in the Central America free trade agreement, which the United States is a member, as well as joining ALBA (the equivalent to CAFTA for the leftist countries in the region).  It seems like the bickering and competition between the United States and Venezuela will create a predicament for many of the Latin American nations who might have to choose sides.  Therefore, the smaller nations will have to choose to either side with Venezuela in its fight against the neo-globalization practices of the US—don’t forget the debt and Banana Republic history in the region which caused so much strife and destruction—or side with powerful United States.  I realize this is rather presumptuous, and a delicate balanced relationship can be maintained, but for how long? Projects such as helping Nicaragua develop oil to help their crisis seem to most likely improve the case for Venezuelan influence in the nation.   

The relationship between the United States and Venezuelan is a rather baffling one.  While Chavez openly calls Bush a pendejo, slanders the US, and even blames the Bush administration for the attacks on 9/11, Venezuela continues to supply a dramatic amount of oil to the US.  Despite the strife, Chavez has yet to end the oil relationship between the two nations and Venezuela continues to produce a substantial amount of the United State’s oil. However, because of the deteriorating relationship between the two countries, the United States has declared that it intends to eventually stop buying oil from the South American nation.  What will these ramifications be?  According to the data from my earlier post, Venezuela currently is dependent upon the United States for 30% of its imports and 50% of its exports (much of that being oil).  Therefore, a distruption in the economic relationship between the two nations would hurt the South American nation.

Chavez is an ardent critic of globalization and promotes his democratic socialization (a form of socialism that encourages democratic grassroot involvement.  He wants to unite Latin America with his plans and reforms—which counter the visions of the United States.  But, he continually relies on trading with the United States, providing oil for our dependent nation.  What is more, after Katrina hit the South, the Chavez administration was the first government to offer aid to the region.  Bush refused the aid from Venezuela.

Quick Venezuela Facts

Before I begin blogging on Venezuelan issues, I thought it would be appropriate to provide some data about the nation that might help put things into context.

 From the Population Reference Bureau, I gathered:

• Crude Birth rate (per 1000) -    22
• Crude Death rate (per 1000) -    5
• Total Fertility rate -     2.7
• Rate of natural increase -    1.7
• Population -   around 27 Million

From the CIA World Factbook:

•  ”Venezuela is a source, transit, and destination country for women and children trafficked for the purposes of sexual exploitation and forced labor; women and children from Colombia, China, Peru, Ecuador, and the Dominican Republic are trafficked to and through Venezuela and subjected to commercial sexual exploitation or forced labor; Venezuelans are trafficked internally and to Western Europe, particularly Spain and the Netherlands, and to countries in the Caribbean region for commercial sexual exploitation; Venezuela is a transit country for illegal migrants from other countries in the region and for Asian nationals, some are believed to be trafficking victims”
• “small-scale illicit producer of opium and coca for the processing of opiates and coca derivatives; however, large quantities of cocaine, heroin, and marijuana transit the country from Colombia bound for US and Europe.”
• Venezuela is a Federal Republic
• The President (Chavez) is both the Head of Government and Chief of State
• 7th largest proved oil reserves in the world (8th if including the world)
• 7th largest exporter of oil
• 90% of export earnings come from oil revenue
• 50% of federal budget is oil revenue
• 30% of GDP is oil revenue
• 50% of exports go to the United States
• 31% of the Venezuela’s imports come from the United States

As the data shows, oil production and exporting is extremely important to the economy of Venezuela.  Furthermore, the trade relationship with the United States fairly large as well.  So one might wonder what will happen to trade if the Venezuelan/United States political relationship deteriorates and breaks up…?

A quick response to Global Warming

Reading through Bjorn Lomborg’s argument about global warming and the need to solve a few issues.  A few things came to mind that I wanted to note.  His argument is fairly interesting and quite thought provoking, however the idea that we can put global warming on the back burning doesn’t resonate well with many (including myself).

First of all, he mentions that the a century from now the LDCs are going to be so much richer than we are now.  But what he forgot to mention is that the developing world will produce at least twice as much pollution several years from now, than the developing world.  Since we are acknowledging the fact that Global Warming is an issue, the industrialized world should set the example and begin curbing our CO2 emissions and pollution in general, and warm the developing world. 

While policy makers need to produce new initiatives and take action to stop malpractice in the
United States, many of the companies and corporations should take the same steps on their own.  Currently, the way in which coal is used is rather dirty and inefficient and most of all is a high polluter.  If the government or the coal industry spent enough money to improve the technology, not only would it cut emissions, but in the long run probably save money.  Also, and most importantly, fossil fuels are not an infinite resource.  Despite the fact they are not going to run out during our lifetime, they eventually will.  Therefore, the need for alternative energy is obvious.

check out his article…

http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/bjorn_lomborg/2007/02/get_your_priorities_straight.html